OECD holds steady on growth forecast for United Kingdom, praising good export prospects

OECD holds steady on growth forecast for United Kingdom, praising good export prospects

The world economy is set to expand 3.5% this year and 3.7% next year, the Paris-based think tank said in an interim update for its economic projection.

Britain's decline, as seen by the OECD, is relative.

The OECD upped its forecasts for the eurozone to 2.1% for this year, up three basis points from its previous 1.8% estimate, and increased its 2018 forecast by one point to 1.9%.

In a mid-term review of its twice-yearly global economic outlook, the organization of 35 mainly industrialized countries warned that "strong and sustained global growth is not yet secured".

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The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development upgraded its global growth forecast for 2018 to 3.7 per cent, which would be the strongest in seven years. Monetary policy should remain accommodative in some economies but with an eye on financial stability so as to remain supportive of further rebalancing towards fiscal and structural initiatives.

The OECD maintained its Canadian outlook for 2018 at 2.3 per cent.

The UK economy remains a laggard, however.

Growth this year is "higher than in 2016 but still below historical norms" said the OECD, which advises industrial nations on economic policy. That's 0.3 percentage point more than its previous prediction in June and means the region will match the expected growth rate of the US, which was left unchanged.

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Japan's expected growth was also revised higher by 0.2 percentage point for this year and next, to 1.6 percent and 1.2 percent, respectively. Its June forecast noted the economy was gaining steam, propelled by government spending on infrastructure, social housing, education and innovation, as well as rising household wealth and rebounding business investment, particularly in the resource sector.

The downward revision was due to the transitory effects of demonetization and of the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST), the group said. "Wage growth has been disappointing, keeping inflation at low levels", it said.

Financial markets are predicting a rise in the cash rate in mid-2018 and another by early 2019, which would take it to two per cent from its record-low 1.5 per cent.

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